Peso surges vs dollar ahead of US inflation data

THE PESO returned to the P55-per-dollar mark anew on Wednesday on expectations of slower US consumer inflation in August, which would give the US Federal Reserve confidence to proceed with its planned rate cut this month.

The local unit closed at P55.975 per dollar on Wednesday, strengthening by 41 centavos from its P56.385 finish on Tuesday, Bankers Association of the Philippines data showed.

The peso last ended at the P55 level on Friday, finishing at a near six-month high of P55.905 against the greenback.

The local unit opened Wednesday’s session at P56.35 against the dollar, which was already its worst showing. Its intraday best was at P55.935 versus the greenback.

Dollars exchanged rose to $1.71 billion on Wednesday from $1.57 billion on Tuesday.

The peso was supported by a generally weaker dollar on Wednesday amid expectations of easing inflation in the United States, Rizal Commercial Banking Corp. Chief Economist Michael L. Ricafort said in a Viber message.

“The dollar-peso pair traded lower on expectations of a lower consumer price index (CPI), elevating bets that the Fed will cut by 50 basis points (bps) at their September policy meeting,” a trader said by phone.

For Thursday, the trader sees the peso moving between P55.80 and P56.30 per dollar, while Mr. Ricafort expects it to range from P55.90 to P56.10.

The dollar fell to its lowest against the yen this year on Wednesday after investors upped the chances of Democrat Kamala Harris beating Republican rival Donald Trump in November’s presidential election after a scheduled debate, Reuters reported.

Traders were also awaiting a key US inflation report that could provide clues on how aggressively the Federal Reserve cuts rates next week. Wednesday’s CPI report is expected to show headline inflation rose 2.6% year on year in August, according to a Reuters poll, slowing from 2.9% in July.

The dollar dropped as much as 1.24% to 140.71 yen, a level not seen since Dec. 28, before trading at 141.16 yen. The dollar index — which measures the currency against six others — slipped 0.22% to 101.43 after rising to a one-week top at 101.77 on Tuesday.

Fed funds futures indicate a 63% chance of a standard 25-bp reduction, and a 37% chance of a super-sized 50-bp cut, according to the CME’s FedWatch tool. — AMCS with Reuters